24th of November 2018 Author: Johnny Karp
Fourth-placed Lazio take on fifth-placed AC Milan in the most interesting match of the Serie A weekend, the two teams clash at the Olympic Stadium in Rome on Sunday. Last season Lazio hammered AC Milan 4-1 in Rome, and striker Ciro Immobile bagged a hat-trick in that match. The reverse fixture was won 2-1 by AC Milan, with goals from Patrick Cutrone and Giacomo Bonaventura. The two teams also met in the Italian Cup last season, and AC Milan prevailed on penalties after two goalless draws. Overall, AC Milan have won two of the last six direct matches in all competitions, while Lazio have only won one.
Lazio have been doing pretty well so far this season, but with one major exception: they lost all their Serie A matches against big teams. They got beaten both by Napoli and Juventus at the start of the season, then lost the local derby against AS Roma and also the home match against Inter in October. Their last result before the international break was a 1-1 draw at Sassuolo, their first draw of the season. Lazio are currently fourth in the Serie A table, one point ahead fifth-placed AC Milan and three points behind third-placed Inter. Lucas Leiva and Riza Durmisi are the only injury concerns for the home side, but both will probably be ready to play in Sunday's match.
AC Milan also had their problems against big teams this season, they lost against Napoli, Inter and Juventus so far. However, the Rossoneri did manage to grab a 2-1 victory against Roma in August. Their last result before the international break was the 2-0 home defeat against Juventus, a match which saw summer signing Gonzalo Higuain miss a penalty kick before getting sent off. The Argentinian striker will be suspended for Sunday's match, and that's not good at all for head coach Gennaro Gattuso because they were already in a pretty deep injury crisis. Ivan Strinic, Lucas Biglia, Giacomo Bonaventura, Mateo Musacchio, Mattia Caldara and Alessio Romagnoli are all out of contention, while Davide Calabria and Hakan Calhanoglu have a slight chance of recovering in time for the game.
Lazio: Strakosha - Felipe, Acerbi, Radu - Marusic, Milinkovic-Savic, Badelj, Parolo, Lulic - Immobile, Caicedo
AC Milan: Donnarumma - Abate, Zapata, Rodriguez, Calabria - Suso, Kessie, Bakayoko, Laxalt - Calhanoglu - Cutrone
My prediction: Lazio to win 2-0, AC Milan can't compete with the home side due to all the injuries they have to deal with.
Here are the odds for the match at Bet365:
Lazio win - 1.85
Draw - 3.75
AC Milan win - 4.20
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I think the bookies have been underestimated AC Milan quite huge in this one...
I understand Lazio should of been considered favourites pre-game because of their current form plus the home advantage but the odds were way to low for them and too high for Milan (in the end those teams are neighbors in the table) and I've placed a double chance stake for Milan which I think was the right move because the game have been relatively even...it wasn't been a lucky draw for Milan I believe.
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