One of the more popular types of bets for punters to make prior to the start of an NFL Season is that of Super Bowl Futures. These types of bets are more often made with the heart rather than the head (as all types of future bets) because they usually involve a player getting a little bit of scratch down on their favorite team or just betting on a longshot hoping for a huge profit.
However, I think there may be an edge to be had on Taking the Patriots to win the Super Bowl as well as AFC East this year, as I will detail.
Generally speaking, players will have a greater probability of winning by taking teams with lower Odds, and a lesser probability of winning by taking teams with greater odds. That refers to implied probability, of course, as it would take a series of highly impressive simulations to determine an actual probability of a team winning a Super Bowl. The computational power that would be required to make such a simulation would be phenomenal, as it would be stats based and would have to account for every single player in the entire league, as well as for the possibility of injuries and the like.
Here are the Odds on VegasInsider.com (taken as an average from all Sportsbooks they track) on each individual team:
| Team | Odds | Winnings |
| New England Patriots | 7/2 | $350 |
| Green Bay Packers | 10/1 | $1,000 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10/1 | $1,000 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 12/1 | $1,200 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 12/1 | $1,200 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 12/1 | $1,200 |
| New York Giants | 14/1 | $1,400 |
| Oakland Raiders | 14/1 | $1,400 |
| Houston Texans | 20/1 | $2,000 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 22/1 | $2,200 |
| Denver Broncos | 25/1 | $2,500 |
| Carolina Panthers | 28/1 | $2,800 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 28/1 | $2,800 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 33/1 | $3,300 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 33/1 | $3,300 |
| Tennessee Titans | 33/1 | $3,300 |
| New Orleans Saints | 40/1 | $4,000 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 40/1 | $4,000 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 50/1 | $5,000 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 50/1 | $5,000 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 50/1 | $5,000 |
| Detroit Lions | 66/1 | $6,600 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 66/1 | $6,600 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 66/1 | $6,600 |
| Miami Dolphins | 66/1 | $6,600 |
| Washington Redskins | 66/1 | $6,600 |
| Buffalo Bills | 100/1 | $10,000 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 150/1 | $15,000 |
| Chicago Bears | 200/1 | $20,000 |
| Cleveland Browns | 250/1 | $25,000 |
| New York Jets | 250/1 | $25,000 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 250/1 | $25,000 |
We will look at is the New England Patriots. What we will do is assume that they not only win the Division, but also that they win the Conference (again) and get a first round bye as well as home field for the remainder of the playoffs.
New England Patriots: Odds 7/2
The first thing that we know is that we would be betting $100 at 7/2 Odds, which results in a payoff of 100/2*7 = $350 in profit if we win the bet and we also get our $100 back. If we lose the bet, then we simply lose the $100.
Fortunately, I have the Point Spreads from last year's Playoffs in this thread on Wizard of Vegas.
So, what we are going to do is use those to determine the probability of the Patriots winning the Super Bowl last year.
We will also use this page at Wizard of Odds.
To determine the implied probability of winning based on the point spread. Without further ado, let's look at who the Patriots met in the Playoffs last year, the Point Spreads of those games, and the Implied Probability of winning:
Houston: Spread: -16, Implied Probability: 89.3%
Pittsburgh: Spread: -6, Implied Probability: 68.9%
Atlanta: Spread: -3, Implied Probability: 59.8%
With that, we will look at profit expectation based on these probabilities:
Probability Overall: .893 * .689 * .598 = .3679, Inverse: .6321
(.3679 * 350) - (.6321 * 100) = $65.555
We look at that and think, 'Great, we expect a profit of $65.56 on our $100 bet, so that's huge!'
Not so fast.
Remember that we made a ton of assumptions to get to this point, the first one is that we assumed that the Patriots win the Conference. While the Patriots did go 14-2, there were a couple of 12-4 teams as well as a 11-5 team out there. Had the Patriots lost to one of those 12-4 teams in the regular season, then each team would be 13-3 and the Patriots would lose the tiebreaker. If there were only two 13-3 teams, then the Patriots could still have a first round bye, but would lose Home Field advantage if they played the team that had already beaten them in the Conference Championship.
Besides that, the Playoff probabilities from last year did not have to account for conditionals. For example, 'What if Tom Brady gets hurt?' The Playoff Point Spreads were based on the knowledge that Tom Brady was healthy. When it comes to this year, there are sixteen Regular Season games in which he could potentially have his season ended. Hell, it happened to Julian Edelman in the preseason with a torn ACL.
The first thing that I want to do is project a record for the New England Patriots this year based on the Points Differential for them last year v. that of all of the teams that they will play. What we will do is assume that we want to subtract a positive Points Differential from the Patriots positive Points Differential and add a negative one to that of the Patriots to get the spread. This is a pretty rough method, but good for our purposes.
The Patriots will be considered as having an average Points Differential of (Points Scored - Points Allowed)/Games Played:
(441-250)/16 = 11.94
Now, we will look at the difference in differential for the Patriots and all of their opponents:
| Patriots | Opponent | Opponent Differential | Total Projected Spread |
| 11.94 | Chiefs | 4.875 | 7 |
| 11.94 | Saints | .9375 | 11 |
| 11.94 | Texans | (3.0625) | 15 |
| 11.94 | Panthers | (2.0625) | 14 |
| 11.94 | Buccaneers | (.9375) | 13 |
| 11.94 | Jets | (8.375) | 20 |
| 11.94 | Falcons | 8.375 | 3.5 |
| 11.94 | Chargers | (.8125) | 12.5 (Could say 13) |
| 11.94 | Broncos | 2.25 | 9.5 |
| 11.94 | Raiders | 1.9375 | 10 |
| 11.94 | Dolphins | (1.0625) | 13 |
| 11.94 | Bills | 1.3125 | 10.5 |
| 11.94 | Dolphins | (1.0625)l | 13 |
| 11.94 | Steelers | 4.5 | 7.5 |
| 11.94 | Bills | 1.3125 | 10.5 |
We add them all up together and get an expected Points Differential for the Patriots of +190 Points, which is unsurprisingly close to the 191 actual Points Differential from last year. If we take the 190/16, then we arrive at an average differential of 11.875, but we don't want to round up, so we'll say 11.5 Points.
Given an average Point Spread of 11.5 Points, we expect the Patriots to have an average probability of winning of 82.2% or .822 on any given game.
If we look at sixteen games, then:
16 * .822 = 13.152
What that means is that the Patriots technically outperformed last year based upon their average Points Differential by winning fourteen games. Even if we used twelve points as our average Differential, that still wouldn't get the Patriots up to fourteen wins.
What we can also do with this overall probability of winning any given game is extrapolate it into probabilities of ending up with a given record using a simple Binomial Distribution. We simply use .822 as our probability of winning and .178 as our probability of losing like so, with this Binomial Distribution Calculator.
We simply Input the N as the number of opportunities (always 16), the K as the number of wins in question (16 would be winning all of them) and .822 as the probability of success on any given individual trial.
16-0: 0.04344592825
15-1: 0.150527984984
14-2: 0.244470632547
13-3: 0.247048181796
12-4: 0.17386541748
11-5: 0.090359253464
10-6: 0.035872550341
9-7: 0.011097174071
8-8 (or worse): 0.003312877065
We are going to assume that 8-8 (or worse) automatically misses the Playoffs, there have been very few exceptions.
That first round bye is fairly important, because the last thing that you want to do if you are trying to go to the Super Bowl is have to play an additional Playoff game. Certainly any game comes with a non-zero probability of losing. The first thing that we will look at is the average record it would take to get a first round AFC bye for the last ten years.
2016: 12-4* (We're actually going to call this 12.5, because there were two such teams and only one ended up with a bye)
2015: 12-4* (We'll call this 12.33 because there were three such teams and two got byes)
2014: 12-4* (Two teams, one bye)
2013: 12-4
2012: 12-4* (12.5, two such teams, one bye)
2011: 12-4* (12.5, two teams, one bye)
2010: 12-4* (Two teams, one bye)
2009: 13-3
2008: 12-4* (Two teams, one bye)
2007: 13-3
When we add those all up and divide by ten, we get an average of 12.483 wins needed to secure a first Round bye. 13-3 teams have always gotten one the last ten years.
Therefore, if we look at a probability of 0.685492727578for the Patriots to go 13-3 (or better) and 0.17386541748 to go 12-4 (assuming they get the bye 50% of those times---..0869327087 then we come up with a total probability of the Patriots getting a first-round bye of roughly .7724254363.
Now, we will look the average total wins needed to advance to the Playoffs for the last ten years for the AFC:
2016: 10-6
2015: 10-6 (We'll say 10.5 because one of two 10-6 teams did not advance)
2014: 10-6
2013: 9-7
2012: 10-6
2011: 8-8* (8.75, four such teams, only one made it)
2010: 10-6
2009: 9-7* (9.5, four teams, two made it)
2008: 8-8* (8.66, three teams, one made it)***
2007: 10-6* (10.33, three teams, one made it)
***Special note here, the 11-5 Patriots did not make it, but the 8-8 Chargers did by virtue of winning their Division.
The first thing that we see is that the average number of wins needed to advance to the Playoffs (at all) is 9.674 wins. Again, we'll say that 9-7 essentially advances you half the time whereas 8-8 should not advance you, and by pure record, did not do so in 2008.
We can take our remaining .0869327087 from the times the Patriots would get 12 wins and not get the bye, and then add to it the probability of these records:
11-5: 0.090359253464
10-6: 0.035872550341
9-7: 0.011097174071
And, again, we'll say they miss the Playoffs half the time at 9-7.
(.0869327087 + .090359253464 + .035872550341 + (.011097174071/2)) = .21871309954
If we combine that with our .7724254363 probability of them getting in with a bye, we end up with .9911385358 for the Patriots to finish with a record of 9-7, or better, and get into the Playoffs one way or another. We end up with a probability of .0088614642 of them missing the Playoffs entirely by going 8-8 (or worse) or by having a record of 9-7 (or better) and missing anyway.
The next question that we have to ask ourselves is whether or not the Patriots had as easy of a road as they could have asked for throughout the Playoffs last year, and whether or not we need to adjust for that. The way that we will do that is with our Average Points Differential and anticipated spread method using last year's regular season points differentials using ALL AFC Playoff teams:
| Patriots | Opponent | Opponent Differential | Total Projected Spread |
| 11.94 | Chiefs | 4.875 | 7 |
| 11.94 | Dolphins | (1.0625) | 13 |
| 11.94 | Steelers | 4.5 | 7.5 |
| 11.94 | Texans | (3.0625) | 15 |
| 11.94 | Raiders | 1.9375 | 10 |
What we find here is an average would-be spread of 10.5 against the average of all teams that the Patriots could have theoretically faced. That is slightly less than the combined point spread of -11 of the two teams that the Patriots did face in the AFC Playoffs last year, but overall, they probably had about the road one would expect.
What we are now going to do is take the Patriots probability of winning of 80.1% (based on a Point Spread of -10.5) for the Patriots and apply it to the probability of them having to win two games (first round bye) and three games (Playoffs, no bye):
(.7724254363 * .801 * .801) = 0.49558893235 (Bye, Advance to Super Bowl)
(.21871309954 * .801 * .801 * .801) = 0.11240156124 (No bye, but Advance)
.0088614642 (Miss Playoffs)
In total, we end up with a probability of about .6079904936 of the Patriots at least making it to the Super Bowl against a probability of .3920095064 that they miss it one way or another.
Interestingly, the Odds are 33/20 for the Patriots to win the AFC Championship, which means a winning bet would get you $165 and your $100 back.
(.6079904936 * 165) - (100 * .3920095064) = 61.117480804
I like this bet, as well, for an expected profit of $61.117 or $61.12 on a $100 bet. The Patriots are clearly the odds on favorite to make the Super Bowl in the AFC East, or should be.
Okay, now we want to take that .6079904936 of making it to the Super Bowl and combine it with the probability of winning the Super Bowl. Theoretically, the Patriots should end up playing the best team, and last year they did (going by Points Differential) with a -3 Line. That means a 59.8% probability of winning, thus:
(.6079904936 * .598) = 0.36357831517
Ultimately, I would assign a probability of 36.357831517% for the Patriots to win the Super Bowl. Let's take a look at how that stacks up with the Odds we are getting:
(.36357831517 * 350) - ((1- .36357831517)*100) = 63.6102418265
Which is an expected profit of $63.61 on a $100 bet for a 63.61% advantage! As you can see, this came in very close to our, 'Playoffs Only,' numbers from last year.
The fact of the matter is that the Patriots making the Playoffs is pretty much a foregone conclusion, barring catastrophe, it's a near certainty that they will based on last year's (and I'm sure, historical) numbers from the last few years. There is less than a 1% chance of the Patriots missing the Playoffs, and in most cases, they get in with a bye.
There is greater than a 75% chance that the Patriots will advance to the Playoffs with a first round bye and only have to win two games, they will likely be favorites in both of those games and decisive favorites in at least one of them. If the Patriots do not get into the Playoffs with a bye, then they still advance to the Super Bowl about 10% of the time.
One major caveat to all of this is that it is based on last year's numbers. For example, if the Patriots advance to the Playoffs but do not have a bye, then we would assume that their Points Differential is worse than last year and they have a lower probability of winning any individual game. However, even if we reduce them to a combined 50% to make the Super Bowl and give them just a 50% chance of winning that game, then the probability of them winning the Super Bowl is still 25%. Even assuming a 25% chance to win at 7/2 Odds, the bettor still has an expected profit of $12.50. You might ask, what would the Odds have to be for the player to have the worst of it? Here is a simple equation for breakeven:
(350 * x) - (100 * (1-x) = 0
Solve for X:
X = .22222222
Plugging it back in:
(350 * .22222) - (100 * .77778) = -0.001 (Rounding)
Therefore, if you think the Patriots have a better than 22.22% chance to win the Super Bowl, then you have the best of this bet. I personally believe that they do given my breakdown above.
Ladbrokes is offering 4/1 on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl, which is even better and presents an even greater player advantage, in my opinion. The implied probability is 20%, so if you think that they have more than a 20% chance of winning, then you have the best of that bet.
Shop around for your best odds, just know what you think the probability should be!
Developments
I look at the recent loss of Julian Edelman as being offset by the pickup of Brandin Cooks and the fact that Rob Gronkowski is healthy this year. Further, I think that the Patriots average Points Differential last year was slightly deflated (get it?) to begin with because Jacoby Brissett started two games (average points scored 13.5) compared to their average of 27.56 for the season (as a whole) and 29.57 average with Brady or Garoppolo in there
Besides that, Brady/Belichick have never counted on just one player on offense, that's not the way that the team works. Given a healthy Gronk and the addition of Cooks, NE was poised to be an even better offense than last year, now I would say they look poised to be at least as good, but perhaps not better.
Besides that, the edge is strong enough that I don't think anything could bring what I think the probability is of 36.35.78% all the way down to 22.22%, much less 20%. I think a lot of bets are coming in on other teams, so that is helping players get a better Line on the Patriots. The Odds on the Patriots, in fact, were as low as 3/1 at one point, which implies a 25% chance.
Las Vegas also has the Over/Under at 12.5 wins for the Patriots, which means that is their expected total wins one way or another because it is an Even Money or -120 bet depending on which side you want to take. Again, 12-4 (or better) is roughly 75% to get a first round bye, which is one less Playoff game they would need to play.
Conclusion
Ultimately, this is not a prediction that the Patriots will win the Super Bowl, merely a statement that I believe there is a 36.3578% probability of them doing so and you have a varying advantage on any Line with a lower implied probability than that. I do predict that they will win the AFC East as I believe that probability to be roughly 60.799%, but freely admit that 39.201% is a pretty substantial possibility that they do not. If you had 100 such NFL seasons, they would not win the AFC East in about 39-40 of them.
I believe the Patriots are a near lock at nearly 99% to make the Playoffs, by one means or another.
Feel free to disagree with me in the comments, as I am sure many of you do. I can take it, I'm just looking at the stats and figures the best way I know how and deriving probabilities based off of those. Either way, I hope you enjoyed reading!
