The Travers sets up as a great race to handicap on paper and the realization is that should set up for one of the best we have seen in quite a while. There is so much class in here that one would think it was Breeders Cup time. It consists of winners in the Lanes End(Hold Me Back), Peter Pan(Charitable Man), Fla Derby(Quality Road),
Fountain of Youth(Quality Road), Barbaro(Our Edge), Belmont(Summer Bird), Jim Dandy(Kensei), & Dwyer(Kensei)
The race entries are as follows:
1) Hold Me Back- ML 15-1 ....odds are high and for good reason. Although there is class in this race, he looks like he just setting up for a minor reward. Hold Me Back has never (in 7 starts) had a Beyer rating of 100 or greater. Dont see the jockey change from Desormeaux to Leproux helping matters either. Avoid like the plague.
2)Charitable Man- ML 6-1...decent odds though I dont see him going off at lesser than 8-1. I believe the line is showing a little of trackmasters liking in it. With 2 bullet works at Saratoga in prep for this race, I believe that is showing in the odds. If bullet works were the only thing that won races, he'd have a shot but thats just not how it works. He hasn't done much to impress me as he hasn't done too well since his Peter Pan Stakes win. After a little more handicapping, one realizes that he only carried 116 pounds in that race. He doesn't get as lucky in this spot. Jockey change doesn't bode well for him as well. Cant back him here either.
3) Warriors Reward- ML 8-1...Looks like yet another one that is shooting for a minor award as well. Only wins in 7 starts occured in a MSW and a n allowance race. Has never raced over 1 1/8 miles and never at over 122 lbs (126 here). A win here would be too much to ask. Enough said.
4) Quality Road- ML 8-5...Now we are getting to the
cream of the crop. He made a sweet comeback in a 6 1/2 fur. race on Aug. 3rd. Word is that he has been training well and has laid down some solid workouts. I see him coming out of the hole and shooting for the lead or close to it. While I think he has a great shot, I just figure its too much to ask for him to have to go from a 6 1/2 fur. race to a 1 1/4 mile in just one race. Should finish in the money, but there at closers that I figure will overcome his early speed in the stretch run.
5) Our Edge- ML 15-1...Looks like the proverbial "rabbit" in this spot. He won 3 races in a row and all were in wire to wire fashion. Though he was able to do that in those races, it just goes to show how poor the competition was. He has the least amount of earnings in the field and his best win was in a Grade 3 race. Will probably come out the gate like a rocket but wont be anywhere near the photo opp at the finish.
6) Summer Bird- ML 3-1...Jockey change and blinkers have turned this good colt into a great one in a relatively short time. Got into trouble early in the Belmont and was able to overcome it with a strong finish to beat Dunkirk and Mine That Bird(Kentucky Derby winner). Dont look for much from him early but I see him flying near the finish for a big slice of the pie with Kensei.
7) Kensei- ML 7-2... Colt comes off of 2 consecutive Grade 2 stakes wins with the Jim Dandy and the Dwyer. Like Summer Bird, has improved with a jockey change. Also, seems to like the longer distances and just pulls away from the field as the race unfolds. Beyer figures have improved(or stayed) the same in every race in his 7 starts. Wont be near the front early in the race but should be able to steer clear of any early speed duels and traffic problems. My pick to take it home in stretch run.
My card-
$50 WPS #7 Kensei
$10 Exacta Box- 7-6
$10 Exacta Box- 7-4
$10 Trifecta Box 4,6,7
Good luck to all and may we all cash in winning tickets.
